The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Nominating Committee will be meeting next month to craft the 2021 ballot. In recent years there has been mounting pressure from artists and critics to induct more women into the Hall of Fame. Let's ask and answer some questions regarding the numbers.

Q: How many women have been inducted into the Rock Hall?

A: Between 1986 and 2020, there have been 923 people inducted into the Hall of Fame, 70 are women (7.6%). The following graph shows how many men and women have been inducted each year.

Q: Aren't those numbers misleading because for a female-fronted band like Blondie, that only counts as one woman and six men?

A: Only 15.4% of inducted artists include at least one woman. On average, the Rock Hall inducts about 1.5 artists with a woman per year versus 8 which are all-men.

Q: What is with the gaps in the chart?

A: No women were inducted in the Rock Hall classes of 1986, 1992, 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2016.

Q: Greg Harris, the Rock Hall Museum President, said the low numbers are "a reflection of the amount of music that was made in the 50's and 60's, and I think we get more of an explosion of female performers especially in the 80's and 90's." So that must mean the female numbers are trending up?

A: The graphs above certainly don't show any upward trends overall. If you look only at inductees who began after 1980, five out of 23 have a female member (Stevie Nicks solo, Madonna, Janet Jackson, Whitney Houston, and Joan Jett), and all of them began their solo recording careers in the early 80s, which means there is no female representation for artists starting between 1985-1994. The 22% of artists from the 80s and 90s is higher than the overall 15%, but it's hardly an "explosion."

Q: How many women have been inducted twice?

A: In 2019, Stevie Nicks became the first woman to be inducted into the Rock Hall for a second time. Twenty-one men have been inducted twice, and Eric Clapton has been honored three times.

Q: Who decides which artists get inducted?

A: Some quick background on the induction system: The Rock Hall's process of determining its honorees begins with an appointed Nominating Committee consisting of roughly 30 members (artists, label executives, writers). That committee meets once per year and develops the performer ballot, which then gets sent to the 1000+ member Voting Committee, consisting of all living Hall of Famers plus an undisclosed list of others in the music industry (again, artists, writers, industry people). The five to seven artists who receive the most votes get inducted.

The Rock Hall has historically been secretive about who is on the Nominating Committee (and they still won't provide the list when asked), but we have been listing it on Future Rock Legends for years. While the Rock Hall argues that it's lack of women inductees is just a reflection of the gender imbalance in rock history, there is no such justification for allowing a system that they fully control to continue to have a gender imbalance such as this:

When you look at the above graph, which shows that just 11% of Nominating Committee members have been women over the years, it's hard not to think that the system has been rotten from the start, especially when some men in the group were abusers of women (or were apologists for it). Look at how overwhelming the numbers were between 1999-2006, and then scroll back up and look at how many women were inducted during that era:

The slow and steady gains in recent years looks positive, but it hasn't been enough to move the needle on the ballot or with the inductees. Just three women were nominated last year, and only Whitney Houston was inducted.

It should also be mentioned here that of the 74 people who have been listed as committee members which make selections in the Non-Performer, Early Influence and Sidemen categories, only three have been women (4%).

What should the Rock Hall do about any of this?

Well, if they don't do anything, it will be more of the same, despite Jann Wenner's insistence that in 20 years people will be complaining too many women are getting inducted. The 2020 class added twenty men to the Voting Committee and zero women, which just exacerbates the imbalance in the system.

A better option would be to listen to Rock Hall critics like Evelyn McDonnell. In her piece about the issue titled The Manhandling of Rock 'N' Roll History, she outlined three steps the Rock Hall needs to do to begin to right the ship:

1. Flood the nominating committee and voting membership with more women.
2. Reduce the voting power of members inducted as players in bands
3. Nominate a shit ton of all-female bands next year.

This will be the first induction class under the new leadership of John Sykes, who took over as Chairman of the Board for the Rock Hall Foundation at the beginning of 2020. While Sykes inherits the Rock Hall's dismal record of nominating and inducting women, he can't be expected to correct 35 years of gender imbalance overnight, as the Hall of Fame's history has already been written. What Sykes does have full control over and can correct immediately is the gross inequity of the induction system itself. If Jon Landau, the Nominating Committee's chair, won't diversify his membership this year, he should be removed from his post. He has had 22 years at the helm and has clearly failed to bring equity of opportunity to the process, even after critical outcry.

The Nominating Committee is just one piece of the puzzle that needs to be fixed. It's safe to assume that the gender split of the Voting Committee is also heavily titled towards men. McDonnell's suggestion to dilute the voting power of bands is a great idea and should be implemented for the class of 2021. Combine that with a fresh look at the non-inductee voters to make sure there is a true diversity of voices casting ballots.

The Rock Hall has been predominantly run by white, male, baby boomers for its first 35 years. They built a museum and a cultural institution that tells the story of rock and roll as they experienced it, but it's an incomplete history. It's long past due to start a new chapter born from an equitable system.

Spin is marking its 35th anniversary with a series of features and lists, including a ranking of the 35 "most influential artists of the past 35 years." Seventeen of the artists have already been inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, including 15 of the top 20. The remaining artists will likely be in the Rock Hall conversation for the next 20+ years.

Here is Spin's ranking, with the eligibility year listed for non-Rock Hall artists:

1. Nirvana
2. Prince
3. Madonna
4. N.W.A
5. Nine Inch Nails
6. 2Pac
7. Run-DMC
8. R.E.M.
9. Public Enemy
10. Rage Against the Machine (2018)
11. Guns N' Roses
12. Beastie Boys
13. Dr. Dre (2018)
14. U2
15. Pearl Jam
16. The Neptunes (2029)
17. Notorious B.I.G.
18. Tori Amos (2017)
19. Michael Jackson
20. Jane's Addiction (2013)
21. Outkast (2019)
22. Radiohead
23. Kanye West (2029)
24. Jay-Z (2021)
25. Eminem (2022)
26. Beyoncé (2029)
27. Ricky Martin (2017)
28. Lady Gaga (2034)
29. Tyler, the Creator (2035)
30. Spice Girls (2022)
31. Bikini Kill (2017)
32. Drake (2035)
33. Billie Eilish (2042)
34. Sublime (2018)
35. No Doubt (2018)

Of the eligible artists, only Rage Against the Machine and Jane's Addiction have appeared on a Rock Hall ballot. The others are still waiting to get an opportunity from the voters.

Is being influential enough to get you into the Hall of Fame on its own? Probably not. It usually takes an additional mix of commercial success, critical acclaim, and industry connections to get you over the top. Fortunately for many of these artists, they can score on multiple fronts.

Prior to its eventual cancellation due to the pandemic, the 2020 Induction Ceremony was supposed to be a cross-generational three hour celebration of this year's class, according to organizers Joel Gallen and Rick Krim. They outlined what the Hall of Fame had planned for the May ceremony during their appearance on the Who Cares About the Rock Hall? podcast.

Here are some highlights from their discussions on the podcast:

• Ceremony Scheduling: The Rock Hall considered a few options when it became clear that an in-person 2020 induction ceremony couldn't happen: 1) Bump the ceremony back to 2021, and slide all subsequent Rock Hall classes back a year. 2) Honor the 2020 class in the Spring and the 2021 class in the Fall. 3) Do both the 2020 and 2021 classes in a single week. According to Joel Gallen, "HBO came back and said that doing two shows in a week or even within a year was not an option — budget wise, schedule wise, all kinds of things. They said we can only do one show, but they still were open to us coming back to them with a version of this year's show that would be pandemic-friendly."
• Show Opening: The show was going to open with a six song medley honoring the performer inductees with Weezer as the house band. They intended to use Miley Cyrus for the Nine Inch Nails portion of the medley, Billy Idol and Billie Joe Armstrong for T. Rex, Lauryn Mayberry from Chvrches for Depeche Mode, and Weezer for the Doobie Brothers. No artists had been lined up for Notorious B.I.G. and Whitney Houston before the ceremony was postponed. Gallen wanted the opening medley to be performed outside in front of the Rock Hall museum, but costs were too high, so a turntable stage in Public Auditorium was going to be used.
• T. Rex: The opening medley would have concluded with "Bang a Gong" and then would have rolled into the video package. Billy Idol was lined up to give the induction speech and then likely would have performed "Jeepster" with Billie Joe Armstrong.
• Doobie Brothers: Gallen proposed a "cold open" for each performer segment with a different artist paying tribute to the inductee. For example, they had wanted The Chicks to perform "Black Water," but they weren't available in May because of their album release, so they were exploring other artists. Luke Bryan was booked to induct the band, and the Doobie Brothers would have performed.
• Depeche Mode: They didn't have anyone booked to do the opening, but they were trying to line up a particular female artist to do a stripped down performance. Charlize Theron was in discussions to be the presenter, but she hadn't committed. Depeche Mode would have performed.
• Nine Inch Nails: St. Vincent was booked to be the presenter and Nine Inch Nails was going to perform three songs.
• Whitney Houston: No presenter was confirmed because Alicia Keys had a conflict in May, but may have been available in November. Slated to perform were Ariana Grande, Jennifer Hudson and H.E.R. with a three song tribute backed by the Roots.
• Notorious B.I.G.: Diddy was set to be the presenter and The Roots would be the backing band for a performance. They had tried to get Jay-Z, but that was a long shot, and they didn't have anyone else booked at the time the ceremony was cancelled.
• 2021: There have been discussions about trying to include this year's living inductees (NIN, Doobies and Depeche Mode) into next year's ceremonies to allow them to have a moment to be honored.

Gallen claims he had the ceremony projected to last 2 hours 48 minutes on paper to fit within the three hour time limit HBO required, but given the history of past ceremonies and the ambitious schedule outlined above, that seems hard to imagine. Hopefully Gallen will be given the opportunity to try again next year.

On a this week's episode of the Who Cares About the Rock Hall? podcast, ceremony director/producer Joel Gallen and talent executive Rick Krim let it slip that the 2021 ceremony is currently scheduled for October 30th. No venue was mentioned, but the past four ceremonies in Cleveland have been held at Public Auditorium. Demand for tickets, and perhaps a need for more spacing for fans, could lead the Rock Hall to move to the Cleveland Cavaliers' arena, Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, which has triple the capacity.

Obviously the 2021 ceremony is over 11 months away and the country is still in the thick of a pandemic, so needless to say that plans could change.

Yesterday, Hits Daily Double reported some news about the 2021 ballot:

The nominating committee of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame will meet in late January to select the 2021 nominees for induction, and the ballots will be mailed in late February.

These tidbits appeared in a Friday email from Rock Hall President/CEO Joel Peresman to members of the org’s voting body, occasioned by the scattering of so many people from their workplaces.

“Due to so many of you perhaps working in remote locations or not at the address we have on file,” Peresman wrote, “we would appreciate it if you could please email [redacted] with the address you would like your 2021 ballot mailed to.”

The Nominating Committee traditionally meets in person and doesn't allow its members to attend remotely, but it seems likely they will be forced to do things differently this year.

Peresman also recently told Billboard that the inductees would probably be announced in early April, leaving over six months between the announcement and the ceremony.

Artists likely to appear on the 2021 ballot are the newly eligible Jay-Z and Foo Fighters, as well as a mix of recently nominated snubs. Artists are eligible 26 years after the release of their first recording.

The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame inducted five more songs into their Singles Category this year, despite not mentioning them in a press release or the televised induction special. The lack of information about the category prompted reporter Troy Smith to ask the Foundation about it in October. When asked specifically about the category, the Rock Hall Foundation said, "it is something that we preferred to have done live, so we are skipping it this year with the plan to return it next year.” The Foundation seemed to have forgotten that it had in fact selected five songs for induction in 2020 (they were printed in the souvenir book), and shortly after their denial added the singles to their website without any official announcement, beyond a wordless Tweet from one of the Museum's Vice Presidents.

pic.twitter.com/tvte92hYyY

— Jason Hanley (@jasonhanleyrock) October 30, 2020

The five songs selected are:

• Irma Thomas - "Time Is on My Side" (1964)
• Junior Walker & the All-Stars - "Shotgun" (1965)
• Sam the Sham & the Pharaohs - "Wooly Bully" (1965)
• The Troggs - "Wild Thing" (1966)
• The Box Tops - "The Letter" (1967)

On a recent episode of the podcast Who Cares About the Rock Hall? ceremony director/producer Joel Gallen was asked about the Singles Category's exclusion from the 2020 HBO induction special. He said that he had initially planned to include a short segment during a live ceremony, but after that was canceled, he was never asked to include it in the shortened induction special. Gallen was surprised to learn that the only premise of the category had been undermined in 2019:

Here’s the moment when the Joel Gallen (the Rock Hall ceremony producer/director) realizes the entire premise behind the Singles Category was undermined when an Isley Brothers song was selected last year. ⁦@rockhallpod⁩ pic.twitter.com/pM80YVXth8

— Future Rock Legends (@futurerocklgnds) November 21, 2020

The Rock Hall has already said they are continuing with the category in 2021, but by the way they continue to treat it, they make it easy to forget.

Eight months after the Inductees were announced, and four months after the ceremony was to have taken place, the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame added six names to the list of 2020 honorees. Initially, Nine Inch Nails sole inductee was Trent Reznor, but this week the Rock Hall added six current and former members of the band: Atticus Ross, Robin Finck, Chris Vrenna, Danny Lohner, Ilan Rubin, and Alessandro Cortini.

Ilan Rubin, born July 7th, 1988, becomes the youngest person ever inducted into the Rock Hall, beating the Red Hot Chili Peppers' Josh Klinghoffer, who was also 32 at the time of induction*. Notably, Rubin is also the first Hall of Famer that was born in the 1980s.

* (When should a person be considered "inducted" into the Rock Hall? When the inductees are announced? At the date of the ceremony? January 1st of their induction year to control for variable ceremony dates? Using any of these calculations, Rubin beats out Klinghoffer.)

The late additions to the inductees is nothing new for the Rock Hall these days. They have made slight adjustments to the inductee lists in each of the last few years (Reeves Gabrels in 2019, Hugh McDonald in 2018), but a major correction this far after the inductees were announced is unusual. After the inductees were announced, Reznor was asked by Rolling Stone about getting in alone:

They are just taking you and nobody else from the band. Was that the right call?

My preference would be that my band get inducted. I’m not the one deciding that, but there’s an effort on my part to acknowledge that.

Reznor collaborated with the Rock Hall's curatorial staff on the Nine Inch Nails special exhibit and was also eager to participate in the ceremony and surrounding festivities. It seems clear that his cooperative attitude greased the skids for getting his band members inducted.

For its part, the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame has not officially commented on the added inductees, other than to confirm that they are now included. As usual, they will offer no explanation, criteria, or reasoning for their decision. Trent Reznor once said of the Rock Hall, "I honestly couldn’t give less of a shit,” which pretty much sums up how the Rock Hall feels about its own credibility.

The Rock Hall also announced that the next live induction ceremony will be in Cleveland in the fall of 2021. They imply that fall ceremonies will become the norm moving forward after that.

The previous "induction season" typically followed this pattern over about 7 1/2 months:

1. September: The Nominating Committee meet in New York to create the ballot. Artists are eligible if they released a record 25 years prior this year.
2. October: The Rock Hall announces the nominees. Voting begins.
3. December: The inductees are announced.
4. April: The induction ceremony is held.

Assuming the Rock Hall holds onto the current eligibility schedule, "induction season" could be nearly a full calendar year between the creation of the ballot and the induction ceremony.

The current eligibility / induction years are already a source of confusion, although it at least makes sense based on when the nominees are announced (for example, Notorious B.I.G. is a first ballot hall of famer with the class of 2020, but his eligibility was based on 2019 — 25 years after his first record in 1994). If nominees aren't announced until 2021 (despite when the NomCom meets), it will feel strange to be talking about the previous year's eligibility class. With the culmination of an "induction season" now in November, It would be a lot cleaner the entire process is within a single year. This would require a catch up year where two years-worth of new artists would become eligible at the same time.

So when should we expect to see the 2021 ballot? Under the old induction season timeline working backwards from a November ceremony, the nominees should be announced in late April or early May, with inductees announced two months after that. But it seems likely the Rock Hall may stretch things out and announce nominees as early as February, with inductees announced in May. That would leave six full months to prepare for the induction ceremony.

Journalism professor and former pop music critic Evelyn McDonnell is one of the most vocal advocates for properly recognizing the importance of women's contributions to rock music. Her essays regarding the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame's deficiencies in that area have led to a heightened awareness in the media and public that just 7.7% of inductees are women.

In 2018, McDonnell released her edited collection of essays, Women Who Rock, which celebrated the careers of over 100 artists, 30% of whom are already in the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. While many of the remaining women highlighted in the book are clearly worthy of the Hall of Fame, most of those eligible haven't even been nominated due to the Rock Hall's flawed induction system.

Will this list predict who the next women inductees will be? The only three women who have been inducted by the Rock Hall since publication were featured in the book, Janet Jackson, Stevie Nicks, and Whitney Houston.

Here is the full list of women from the book (linked artists are not in the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame; Hall of Famers noted with their year of induction):

• Bessie Smith (1989)
• Sister Rosetta Tharpe (2018)
• Mahalia Jackson (1997)
• Willie Mae "Big Mama" Thornton
• Wanda Jackson (2009)
• Patsy Cline
• Nina Simone (2018)
• Odetta
• Joan Baez (2017)
• Carole King (1990 as Non-Performer)
• Celia Cruz
• Tina Turner (1991 with Ike Turner)
• Aretha Franklin (1987)
• Darlene Love (2011)
• Ronnie Spector (2007 with The Ronettes)
• Diana Ross (1988 with The Supremes)
• Dusty Springfield (1999)
• Marianne Faithfull
• Grace Slick (1996 with Jeffeson Airplane)
• Laura Nyro (2012)
• Janis Joplin (1995)
• Carol Kaye
• Cher
• Dolly Parton
• Mavis Staples (1999 with The Staples Singers)
• Joni Mitchell (1997)
• The GTO's
• Yoko Ono
• Patti LaBelle
• Linda Ronstadt (2014)
• Karen Carpenter
• June Millington
• Bonnie Raitt (2000)
• Betty Davis
• Suzi Quatro
• Chaka Khan
• Emmylou Harris
• Stevie Nicks (2019 solo and 1998 with Fleetwood Mac)
• Donna Summer (2013)
• Patti Smith (2007)
• Heart (2013)
• Debbie Harry (2006 with Blondie)
• Joan Jett (2015)
• Grace Jones
• Poly Styrene
• Siouxsie Sioux
• Kate Bush
• Alice Bag
• Chrissie Hynde (2005 with The Pretenders)
• Exene Cervenka
• Poison Ivy
• ESG
• The Go-Go's
• Laurie Anderson
• Diamanda Galás
• Cyndi Lauper
• Madonna (2008)
• Kim Gordon
• k.d. lang
• Whitney Houston (2020)
• Janet Jackson (2019)
• Salt-N-Pepa
• Sinéad O'Connor
• Angélique Kidjo
• Lucinda Williams
• L7
• Selena
• Queen Latifah
• Ani DiFranco
• Kathleen Hanna
• Courtney Love
• Liz Phair
• TLC
• Tori Amos
• PJ Harvey
• Gwen Stefani
• Björk
• Lauryn Hill
• Aaliyah
• Shirley Manson
• Sleater-Kinney
• Fiona Apple
• Missy Elliott
• Erykah Badu
• Neko Case
• Dixie Chicks
• Beyoncé
• Tegan and Sara
• Peaches
• Sharon Jones
• Laura Jane Grace
• Amy Winehouse
• M.I.A.
• Rihanna
• Ana Tijoux
• Taylor Swift
• Adele
• Janelle Monáe
• Lady Gaga
• Santigold
• Nicki Minaj
• Pussy Riot
• Brittany Howard

It should be noted that McDonnell's book is not meant to be a comprehensive list of women who are worthy of induction, because there are many others who should be considered.

The future of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame's Singles Category has been suspect since last year's induction ceremony segment announcing the honored songs was cut from HBO's broadcast. To cast further doubt on the viability of the category, the Rock Hall has been slow to display the inducted singles in the Museum and on the website (the songs are now listed on the site with their induction classes). There was also no mention of the category when the inductees were announced last week.

The category's sole champion to date has been Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Nominating Committee member Steven Van Zandt. This week he clarified the flexible criteria for the category in a tweet:

No real rules. Special songs from the soundtrack of our lives. Influential. Or important. Or fun. Mostly by artist that won’t get in but not always. Like a Rock Hall Jukebox. A few of us just pick em.

The Rock Hall describes the category with weightier (but still vague) language:

This category of recognition focuses on the songs which have established a permanence in our history and influenced rock and roll. These songs have had an immense cultural impact and merit a place in history.

So, songs could have "immense cultural impact" or just be "fun." Van Zandt will talk to a couple people and just pick a few songs to carve into history. Whatever. When literally thousands of songs meet the loose definition of the category, it effectively becomes a meaningless award.

Steven Van Zandt was recently interviewed by Brian Ives for Beasley Media to discuss the Rock Hall and his position serving on the Nominating Committee for 18 years:

Ives: You’ve advocated for a lot of legendary acts to be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame: the Rascals, the Dave Clark Five, Darlene Love, the Hollies. But are you getting turned on to relatively younger bands, as groups like the Cure and Radiohead get inducted?

SVZ: I’m not opposed to checking things out. It’s just mostly they don’t speak to me. I don’t make a value judgment on it. I may not love something but that doesn’t mean it’s bad. It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. I got no problem with any of that. They might just not be something that necessarily speaks to me.

Like the bands I am still trying to get people into like Johnny Burnette and the Rock ‘n Roll Trio and Procol Harum, The J. Geils Band. I’m still trying to get into the basic obvious bands that should be in for historic reasons. The difference is, when it comes to the Radioheads and the Cures, and those kinds of bands, I tend to think more chronologically. It’s not that they shouldn’t be in, but I just think the ones that without whom they wouldn’t exist, we need to get them in first. These are the ones that really created this thing that we are all still making a living from, you know. That includes some doo-wop groups and others that should be in.

Van Zandt echoes some of the same frustrations that fellow NomCom member Seymour Stein did when lamenting that The Clovers, Connie Francis and Ivory Joe Hunter still couldn't get nominated.

Ives then asked Van Zandt about KISS's controversial exclusion:

Ives: I think that Tom Morello turned a lot of people’s heads with his speech at KISS’s induction. It was as passionate as his speeches about worker’s rights. I know a lot of people on the nominating committee had it in for KISS. Did any of that change, in your mind, when he made that speech?

SVZ: I liked them and I had seen them. I had happened to go, Doc [McGhee], the manager, called me to come down and check them out. For some reason, I had never seen them. And I went to a show. I thought this was like maybe 20 years ago. I was quite surprised by how many good songs they had. There was one good song after the other.

Now, a lot of these things have to do with context and perspective. When they came out we were all coming out of the Renaissance period of the ’50s and ’60s. We weren’t going to judge them the same way because that was at the beginning of the early ’70s and the beginning of the fragmentation [of rock and roll], and the beginning and the hybrids and theatricality and the beginning of so many things that were now going to go against tradition. Those of us who were traditionalists were not necessarily ready for it or put it into perspective. But you know 20-30 years later, I look at them compared to even groups of the ’80s and certainly in the ’90s. And you say, you know what, they had a bunch of really good songs. And they are great performers. So no, I had absolutely no problem with KISS going in.

Some people were a little bit upset about it. But you know it’s tough. It’s tough to get in that Hall of Fame. And I get very upset when people don’t show up for it.

Ives: Like Radiohead or the Sex Pistols.

SVZ: Yeah.. I don’t like it. It’s going to be the first line in your epitaph, man. You know what I mean?

Performers:

• Depeche Mode
  
• The Doobie Brothers
  
• Whitney Houston
  
• Nine Inch Nails
  
• Notorious B.I.G.
  
• T. Rex
  

There are also two inductees receiving the Ahemet Ertegun Award for Non-Performers.Non-Performers:

• Irving Azoff
  
• Jon Landau

Inductees will be honored at the Induction Ceremony in Cleveland on May 2, 2020, and will be broadcast live on HBO.

Even though there haven’t been any polls of official voters, since 2013, there have been two different fan polls to look for clues:

1. The Rock Hall’s official Fan Vote: This poll reflects the will of the unwashed masses. It generally skews towards artists that are regulars on classic rock radio and ones with rabid fan bases who are willing to vote everyday regardless of how little the fan vote counts. Hip hop, R&B, funk and other non-traditional “rock” artists generally perform poorly in this poll. Notably, fans can select between one and five artists with each vote (many strategically vote for a single artist daily, so results tend to be top heavy).
2. The Future Rock Legends Poll: This poll (and site) generally favors objective and knowledgeable music fans who are students of the Rock Hall itself, not just their particular favorite artists. While still primarily rock-focused, contemporary artists, and hip hop and R&B artists tend to perform better than with the Rock Hall’s fan voters. The poll requires voters to select five artists, so the results are more evenly distributed. Unlike the Rock Hall’s poll, which allows daily voting, the FRL poll only permits one ballot submission per voter.

So which of these two polls best reflects the demographics of the official 1000+ voters? Which poll aligns with the results the Rock Hall voters have produced? We’ll focus on the top five results of both polls. Since the class of 2013, if you finished in the top five of the Rock Hall vote, you had a 71% chance of being inducted that year. Finishing in the top five of the FRL poll, gave you a 63% chance of being inducted. But what if an artist finished in the top five of both polls? Since 2013, that’s happened 21 times, and 76% of those artists were inducted that year, including 100% (!!!) of the artists in the last four years.*

So... who finished in the top five of both polls this year? Three artists: Pat Benatar, the Doobie Brothers, and Judas Priest.

Future Rock Legends predicts the inductees of the Rock Hall class of 2020 will be:

1. Pat Benatar: Nearly all inductions these days can be categorized as “overdue,” because the Rock Hall perpetuates a system where the backlog gets longer every year. So the fact that has taken 20 years for Pat Benatar to show up on a ballot is an indictment of the institution, not the artist.
2. The Doobie Brothers: Ever since signing on with Rock Hall Board member Irving Azoff’s management company, this induction has been in the works. Their string of radio-friendly hits and the promise of a Michael McDonald reunion performance makes them a lock, and should also provide a dance-friendly segment to the induction ceremony.
3. Judas Priest: Rob Halford and company were disappointed when they didn’t get inducted two years ago. Reports of them not performing well with voters didn’t bode well for their return to the ballot so soon. The Nominating Committee had other ideas, and decided to give them another shot this year. Plenty of Hall of Famers didn’t get in on their first try (Aerosmith, Queen, Pink Floyd, David Bowie), so Judas Priest will be in good company when they make it in.
4. T. Rex: If last year’s induction class proved anything, it was the power of the British voting bloc. Every band that made it in last year was from across the pond, adding even more voters who know the unique impact that T. Rex had in that country. Marc Bolan is one of those names that people have been lauding around here for 13+ years, and usually when that type of genius gets nominated, they get inducted immediately.
5. Nine Inch Nails: When the nominees were announced in October, nominating committee member Alan Light discussed the importance of artists staying relevant to get the attention of voters and used the NIN sample on “Old Town Road” as a great example. Since that time, Trent Reznor’s work on the critically acclaimed Watchmen score has only bolstered his case as one of the top 100 artists ever.
6. Notorious B.I.G.: Alan Light felt that there was a clear opportunity for Biggie Smalls to be inducted in his first eligible year, so the Nominating Committee opted to keep him as the only hip hop artist on the ballot so there would be no vote-splitting in that genre. That strategy worked well in 2017 when Tupac was inducted as the sole hip hop nominee on a large ballot. The Nominating Committee is doing everything it can to keep the hip hop lane clear: next year, Jay-Z becomes eligible. The following year it will be Eminem. After that comes Missy Elliott. Unless the Nominating Committee decides to widen the hip hop highway, they need to keep traffic moving, and they can’t afford to not get Biggie in this year. A single lane for hip hop has already kept LL Cool J, Outkast, A Tribe Called Quest, Wu Tang Clan, De La Soul, and Eric B. & Rakim (among many others) stuck in traffic, a problem the Rock Hall faces in nearly every genre of music.

Additional Notes:

• Like Erockracy and Iconic Rock Talk Show, we’ll take Alan Light and Joel Peresman’s suggestion seriously that Kraftwerk could be honored this year as an Early Influence inductee, because it might be the only viable path to getting them in the Rock Hall, even if they have to change the meaning of the category.
• It’s true that every Rock Hall fan vote winner has been inducted, so why not Dave Matthews Band this year? They are certainly a worthy nominee and should get inducted eventually, but their relatively tepid first place finish in the fan poll (compared to previous first place finishers) combined with a poor showing in our own poll, gives us enough pause to think they won’t make it this year. Could it happen? Absolutely. Dave Matthews is extremely well connected and has made a lot of money for the music industry, and that can never be discounted.
• The Rock Hall’s decision to extend voting an additional month effectively killed off any momentum they had from the nominations. Hopefully they won’t do that again.
• There is more uncertainty than usual with this year’s induction class. HBO’s live broadcast of the ceremony could potentially pressure the Rock Hall to induct a smaller class than usual to keep the event under four hours. On the other hand, the Museum is celebrating its 25th anniversary, so perhaps there is something special in the works. We’ll find out which way things go on January 15th when the inductees are announced.
• * - In the last four years, there were 10 artists who finished in the top five of the Rock Hall and FRL polls: The Cure, Def Leppard, Bon Jovi, Moody Blues, Dire Straits, The Cars, E.L.O., Pearl Jam, Chicago, and Deep Purple.
• If you like this type of analysis, we humbly request you consider supporting Future Rock Legends by purchasing a shirt in our store at Teespring. For the next two weeks, you can get a 20% discount on anything by using the Promo Code FRL20 at checkout (just $20 for a classic shirt).

As noted above, for thirteen years we have been conducting an unofficial poll on this site which requires voters to select five artists on their ballot. The results (after 1873 ballots):

1. Pat Benatar 59% (she appeared on 59% of the ballots)
2. The Doobie Brothers 52%
3. Whitney Houston 42%
4. Judas Priest 34%
5. Nine Inch Nails 34%
6. Motörhead 33%
7. Depeche Mode 33%
8. Soundgarden 32%
9. Thin Lizzy 31%
10. T. Rex 30%
11. Kraftwerk 30%
12. Notorious B.I.G. 29%
13. Rufus featuring Chaka Khan 20%
14. Dave Matthews Band 15%
15. Todd Rundgren 15%
16. MC5 11%

This class has the chance to be defined by 90s icons like Notorious B.I.G. Soundgarden and Dave Matthews Band; overdue hard rockers like Judas Priest, Motörhead and Thin Lizzy; or classic rock staples the Doobie Brothers and Pat Benatar. This year’s inductions will also be the first time HBO will broadcast the ceremony live, and we’ll see if that has any impact on the overall ceremony length and the number of inductees.

There is now official Future Rock Legends gear available in our store at Teespring. To celebrate the class of 2020, get a 20% discount on anything by using the Promo Code FRL20 at checkout (just $20 for a t-shirt). Thank you for supporting independent websites like Future Rock Legends!

The top five artists, as selected by the public, will comprise a “fans’ ballot” that will be tallied along with the other ballots to choose the 2020 inductees.

So why is the Fan Vote perceived to be so important? Why would nominated artists often urge their fans to vote every day just to get that one extra vote? Well, it just so happens that since 2013, every winner of the fan poll has been inducted (Rush, KISS, Stevie Ray Vaughan, Chicago, Journey, Bon Jovi, and Def Leppard). Assuming the Rock Hall is playing it straight with the votes, the correlation of the fans’ desires and the Voting Committee’s desires is just coincidental and not causal, but that hasn’t prevented people from thinking it is directly linked.

There is a good chance that this may be the first year in which those two voting blocks won’t see eye to eye. When the inductees are announced in mid-January, there are two possible outcomes:

1. Dave Matthews Band is a 2020 inductee: This scenario would reinforce the general perception that winning the fan poll guarantees an induction since every fan poll winner gets in. Popular artists with strong fan bases (e.g. Mötley Crüe, Phish, Jimmy Buffett, Iron Maiden) would see this as a path to induction.
2. Dave Matthews Band does not get inducted this year: This is where things get interesting. Fans of Dave Matthews Band who voted will feel like it was a waste of time and will become skeptical of the Rock Hall’s induction process (if they weren’t already). Artists may wake up to the realization that getting the fans involved is far less important than getting their friends with actual ballots to vote. The Rock Hall will likely try to defend the poll by pointing to any artists in the top five who did get inducted (e.g. Pat Benatar and the Doobie Brothers).

So how is this going to shake out? We’re guessing the Voting Committee is more in line with the voters in the FRL Fan Poll, where Dave Matthews Band is currently placed next to last (appearing on 15% of ballots), so they will fall short and the fan poll blowback can begin.