The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame is controversial. Sometimes people don’t like who gets in, and they definitely don’t like who is left out. Because it’s such a hot topic, the Rock Hall protects its decision makers from criticism by not revealing their names. They won’t tell you who puts together the ballot, and they won’t tell you who votes on the nominees (other than living Hall of Famers). So, how do you predict the will of a (supposedly) anonymous voting body?

Even though there haven’t been any polls of official voters, since 2013, there have been two different fan polls to look for clues:

1. The Rock Hall’s official Fan Vote: This poll reflects the will of the unwashed masses. It generally skews towards artists that are regulars on classic rock radio and ones with rabid fan bases who are willing to vote everyday regardless of how little the fan vote counts. Hip hop, R&B, funk and other non-traditional “rock” artists generally perform poorly in this poll. Notably, fans can select between one and five artists with each vote (many strategically vote for a single artist daily, so results tend to be top heavy).
2. The Future Rock Legends Poll: This poll (and site) generally favors objective and knowledgeable music fans who are students of the Rock Hall itself, not just their particular favorite artists. While still primarily rock-focused, contemporary artists, and hip hop and R&B artists tend to perform better than with the Rock Hall’s fan voters. The poll requires voters to select five artists, so the results are more evenly distributed. Unlike the Rock Hall’s poll, which allows daily voting, the FRL poll only permits one ballot submission per voter.

So which of these two polls best reflects the demographics of the official 1000+ voters? Which poll aligns with the results the Rock Hall voters have produced? We’ll focus on the top five results of both polls. Since the class of 2013, if you finished in the top five of the Rock Hall vote, you had a 71% chance of being inducted that year. Finishing in the top five of the FRL poll, gave you a 63% chance of being inducted. But what if an artist finished in the top five of both polls? Since 2013, that’s happened 21 times, and 76% of those artists were inducted that year, including 100% (!!!) of the artists in the last four years.*

So... who finished in the top five of both polls this year? Three artists: Pat Benatar, the Doobie Brothers, and Judas Priest.

Future Rock Legends predicts the inductees of the Rock Hall class of 2020 will be:

1. Pat Benatar: Nearly all inductions these days can be categorized as “overdue,” because the Rock Hall perpetuates a system where the backlog gets longer every year. So the fact that has taken 20 years for Pat Benatar to show up on a ballot is an indictment of the institution, not the artist.
2. The Doobie Brothers: Ever since signing on with Rock Hall Board member Irving Azoff’s management company, this induction has been in the works. Their string of radio-friendly hits and the promise of a Michael McDonald reunion performance makes them a lock, and should also provide a dance-friendly segment to the induction ceremony.
3. Judas Priest: Rob Halford and company were disappointed when they didn’t get inducted two years ago. Reports of them not performing well with voters didn’t bode well for their return to the ballot so soon. The Nominating Committee had other ideas, and decided to give them another shot this year. Plenty of Hall of Famers didn’t get in on their first try (Aerosmith, Queen, Pink Floyd, David Bowie), so Judas Priest will be in good company when they make it in.
4. T. Rex: If last year’s induction class proved anything, it was the power of the British voting bloc. Every band that made it in last year was from across the pond, adding even more voters who know the unique impact that T. Rex had in that country. Marc Bolan is one of those names that people have been lauding around here for 13+ years, and usually when that type of genius gets nominated, they get inducted immediately.
5. Nine Inch Nails: When the nominees were announced in October, nominating committee member Alan Light discussed the importance of artists staying relevant to get the attention of voters and used the NIN sample on “Old Town Road” as a great example. Since that time, Trent Reznor’s work on the critically acclaimed Watchmen score has only bolstered his case as one of the top 100 artists ever.
6. Notorious B.I.G.: Alan Light felt that there was a clear opportunity for Biggie Smalls to be inducted in his first eligible year, so the Nominating Committee opted to keep him as the only hip hop artist on the ballot so there would be no vote-splitting in that genre. That strategy worked well in 2017 when Tupac was inducted as the sole hip hop nominee on a large ballot. The Nominating Committee is doing everything it can to keep the hip hop lane clear: next year, Jay-Z becomes eligible. The following year it will be Eminem. After that comes Missy Elliott. Unless the Nominating Committee decides to widen the hip hop highway, they need to keep traffic moving, and they can’t afford to not get Biggie in this year. A single lane for hip hop has already kept LL Cool J, Outkast, A Tribe Called Quest, Wu Tang Clan, De La Soul, and Eric B. & Rakim (among many others) stuck in traffic, a problem the Rock Hall faces in nearly every genre of music.

Additional Notes:

• Like Erockracy and Iconic Rock Talk Show, we’ll take Alan Light and Joel Peresman’s suggestion seriously that Kraftwerk could be honored this year as an Early Influence inductee, because it might be the only viable path to getting them in the Rock Hall, even if they have to change the meaning of the category.
• It’s true that every Rock Hall fan vote winner has been inducted, so why not Dave Matthews Band this year? They are certainly a worthy nominee and should get inducted eventually, but their relatively tepid first place finish in the fan poll (compared to previous first place finishers) combined with a poor showing in our own poll, gives us enough pause to think they won’t make it this year. Could it happen? Absolutely. Dave Matthews is extremely well connected and has made a lot of money for the music industry, and that can never be discounted.
• The Rock Hall’s decision to extend voting an additional month effectively killed off any momentum they had from the nominations. Hopefully they won’t do that again.
• There is more uncertainty than usual with this year’s induction class. HBO’s live broadcast of the ceremony could potentially pressure the Rock Hall to induct a smaller class than usual to keep the event under four hours. On the other hand, the Museum is celebrating its 25th anniversary, so perhaps there is something special in the works. We’ll find out which way things go on January 15th when the inductees are announced.
• * - In the last four years, there were 10 artists who finished in the top five of the Rock Hall and FRL polls: The Cure, Def Leppard, Bon Jovi, Moody Blues, Dire Straits, The Cars, E.L.O., Pearl Jam, Chicago, and Deep Purple.
• If you like this type of analysis, we humbly request you consider supporting Future Rock Legends by purchasing a shirt in our store at Teespring. For the next two weeks, you can get a 20% discount on anything by using the Promo Code FRL20 at checkout (just $20 for a classic shirt).

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As noted above, for thirteen years we have been conducting an unofficial poll on this site which requires voters to select five artists on their ballot. The results (after 1873 ballots):

1. Pat Benatar 59% (she appeared on 59% of the ballots)
2. The Doobie Brothers 52%
3. Whitney Houston 42%
4. Judas Priest 34%
5. Nine Inch Nails 34%
6. Motörhead 33%
7. Depeche Mode 33%
8. Soundgarden 32%
9. Thin Lizzy 31%
10. T. Rex 30%
11. Kraftwerk 30%
12. Notorious B.I.G. 29%
13. Rufus featuring Chaka Khan 20%
14. Dave Matthews Band 15%
15. Todd Rundgren 15%
16. MC5 11%