The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominated 15 artists this year, the most since 2006. Unlike the last few years, the Rock Hall did not announce a predetermined number of inductees, but voters will still instructed to vote for just five artists. Since the door was left open, we're guessing there will be more than five performers inducted this year. Here are the six we predict will be honored on March 14, 2011:

• Alice Cooper
• Beastie Boys
• Bon Jovi
• Neil Diamond
• Darlene Love
• Donna Summer

We're predicting that Tom Waits, Donovan, The J. Geils Band, Dr. John, Chic, Joe Tex, LL Cool J, Laura Nyro and Chuck Willis will all have to try again next year.

Over 1500 Future Rock Legends voters cast their ballots in the 2011 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame poll. The top five vote getters are Alice Cooper (on 81% of ballots), Neil Diamond (67%), Beastie Boys (57%), Bon Jovi (53%), and Tom Waits (44%). [The last three years, FRL voters have accurately predicted three out of the five inductees.]

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame will announce the official 2011 inductees on December 15th. Keep checking Future Rock Legends for all of the latest Rock & Roll Hall of Fame news. You can also follow us on Twitter.

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame expert Charles Crossley, Jr. offered up his analysis of the 2011 nominees over on his message board (reposted here with permission).

For those new to analyzing the nominees on the R&RHoF ballots, many people say many things about how people wind up on the ballot.  They insist that the ballot is dominated by a certain criteria, or that at least one act on every ballot must meet a certain criteria.  Often, these opinions are incorrect, but you need it broken out before you can challenge or affirm these opinions.  
So, with that perspective, let's break up these nominees and examine them based on different criteria, with an emphasis on the criteria people have claimed in the past made a difference about who gets nominated.   
Note: unlike previous years, this year’s announcement lists the members being considered, which simplifies the analyses greatly.
 
First, by subgenre:  
One metal (if you’re 70s)/hard rock (if you’re 80s) act (Alice Cooper)
One hard rock act (Bon Jovi)
Two rap acts (Beastie Boys and LL Cool J)
Two disco acts (Chic and Donna Summer)
One Brill building pop act (Neil Diamond)
One folk-rock act (Donovan)
One New Orleans r&b act (Dr. John)
One r&b revival act (J. Geils Band)
One 60s girls group (Darlene Love)
Two singer-songwriters (Laura Nyro and Tom Waits)
One soul act (Joe Tex)
One r&b act (Chuck Willis)  

Next, by members:  
Alice Cooper (Vincent Furnier, Glen Buxton, Michael Bruce, Dennis Dunaway, Neal Smith) 
Beastie Boys (Mike D (Mike Diamond), MCA (Adam Yauch) and Ad-Rock (Adam Horovitz)) 
Bon Jovi (Jon Bon Jovi, Richie Sambora, David Bryan, Tico Torres and Alec John) 
Chic (Bernard Edwards, Nile Rodgers, Tony Thompson, Norma Jean Wright, Alfa Anderson and Luci Martin)  
Neil Diamond (himself) 
Donovan (himself) 
Dr. John (himself) 
J. Geils Band (Jerome Geils, Peter Wolf, Magic Dick, Danny Klein, Stephen Jo Bladd, Seth Justman) 
LL Cool J (himself) 
Darlene Love (herself) 
Laura Nyro (herself) 
Donna Summer (herself) 
Joe Tex (himself) 
Tom Waits (himself) 
Chuck Willis (himself)
 
Next, by previous inductions. Clyde McPhatter was the first person to be inducted more than once into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, as a soloist and as a member of the first incarnation of the Drifters. So, when someone is inducted more than once, we say he has joined the Clyde McPhatter Club.   
So, notice there are no names in bold above? No one is poised to join the Clyde McPhatter Club this year.  None.  Zip.    

Next, by race:  
White: 23
All members of Alice Cooper, Beastie Boys, 4 members of Bon Jovi, Neil Diamond, Donovan, Dr. John, J. Geils Band, Laura Nyro and Tom Waits.  
Black: 11
All members of Chic, LL Cool J, Darlene Love, Donna Summer, Joe Tex and Chuck Willis. 
Hispanic: 1
Tico Torres of Bon Jovi (Cuban American, actually)
 
Next, by gender:  
Male: 29 
Women: 5  

Next, by nationality based on place of birth:   
British: 1 (Donovan)
The rest are Americans.  

Next, by the number of top 40 hits on the Billboard 100:  
Alice Cooper (both band and solo): 10 Beastie Boys: 3
Bon Jovi: 21 Chic: 5
Neil Diamond: 37 Donovan: 12 Dr. John: 1 J. Geils Band: 10 LL Cool J: 14
Darlene Love: 2, unless you count all the hits she recorded with the Blossoms under other names
Laura Nyro: Of course not; that's why everybody else had hits with her songs!
Donna Summer: 20
Joe Tex: 9 Tom Waits:  Of course not, that’s why everybody else sings his songs! Chuck Willis:  4  

Next, by dead members. Currently, there are 6:  
Bernard Edwards and Tony Thompson of Chic
Glen Buxton of Alice Cooper Laura Nyro
Joe Tex Chuck Willis
 
Next, by number of years eligible:  
LL Cool J, 2nd year of eligibility
Beastie Boys, 4th year of eligibility
Bon Jovi, 3rd year of eligibility
Chic, 9th year of eligibility
Tom Waits, 13th year of eligibility
Donna Summer, 14th year of eligibility (a cover of "Sally Go 'Round The Roses")
J. Geils Band, 16th year of eligibility
Alice Cooper, 17th year of eligibility Dr. John, 18th year of eligibility
Laura Nyro, 19th year of eligibility
Donovan, 20th year of eligibility
Joe Tex, 21st year of eligiblity
Darlene Love, 23rd year of eligibility
Neil Diamond, 23rd year of eligiblity Chuck Willis, 35th year of eligibility
 
Next, number of times nominated, including years nominated:  
Beastie Boys – two times (2007, 2010)
Bon Jovi – first time nominated Chic - six times (2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010)
Alice Cooper – first time nominated Neil Diamond – first time nominated Donovan – first time nominated Dr. John – first time nominated J. Geils Band – three times (2004, 2005, 2010) LL Cool J - two times (2009, 2010)
Darlene Love - three times (1998, 2009, 2010)
Laura Nyro - two times (2009, 2010)
Donna Summer - three times (2007, 2009, 2010)
Joe Tex – four times (1997, 2005, 2006, 2010) Tom Waits – first time nominated Chuck Willis – five times (1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 2010)*  
Although the nominators favored first time nominees in recent years, this year they are favoring repeat nominees (6 first time nominees to 9 repeat nominees, including Chic and Chuck Willis, currently the most nominated acts yet to be inducted).

*Some sources say Chuck Willis was also nominated in 1985.  However, there were no nominee ballots in 1985, because there were no voters in 1985.  In 1985, a group of men gathered together and selected the first class of inductees to the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame, inducted in the ceremony that took place in 1986.  It wasn't until 1986 that the R&RHoF had nominators and voters.

The 2011 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees were announced this morning at RockHall.com.

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum President, Terry Stewart, recently responded to a Duran Duran fan about why the band hadn't been inducted yet. The letter appears to be primarily a form letter, but it has been updated to include some interesting new information on the induction process.

Thanks for your comments. We receive literally thousands of emails every year like yours about hundreds of different artists. Consequently, part of this communication is a standard response as to how the induction process works. First of all, the only reason that Duran Duran have not been inducted is that they did not get enough votes to date to make the final ballot. OR, upon making the ballot, they did not get enough votes. There are no conspiracies and no one has veto power.

The Rock Hall has tried to convince everyone in recent years that Jann Wenner does not control the induction process nor is he even currently on the Nominating Committee. The rumors of bands being blackballed may have been true in the past, but don't seem to hold much water these days (e.g. Kiss was nominated this past year).

Please remember the following: Everyone personalizes everything about rock and roll when they are brought into the circle of discussion. This is another way of saying that many fans believe that their opinion is uniquely compelling and definitive. Without metrics (see below), the definition of "rock and roll," who is or was important, and who should be inducted is incredibly subjective.

Nice to hear them admit that it is in fact a subjective process.

As a result, our Nominating and Voting Committees are replete with Inductees (in fact, they are the largest bloc of voters). Someone has to decide, so we built our Voting Committee around the most qualified group possible: the living Inductees, which number around 400 at this time. Thus, folks like Bruce, Metallica, Clapton, Ozzy, Prince and the others are the difference makers. You may disagree, but being an Inductee makes a pretty good case for being the ones who choose.

There have been 234 artists inducted into the Rock Hall over the past 25 years (anyone know how many individuals total?). Subtract the deceased Hall of Famers, and Stewart puts the number of Hall of Fame voters at around 400. The Rock Hall sends out ballots to "more than 500 voters," so the voting really is dominated by Hall of Fame artists. While it's true that the majority of Voting Committee members are Hall of Famers, the 34-member Nominating Committee has just a handful of inductees as members, and they control who makes the final ballot.

With that overview, here’s how the process works. Nomination and induction into the Hall of Fame is not about popularity, records sales, which label the group is on, or anything other than the process below. Unlike baseball, football, basketball or hockey, statistics are not relevant. To be eligible for induction as an artist (as a performer, composer, or musician) into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, the artist must have released a record, in the generally accepted sense of that phrase, at least 25 years prior to the year of induction; and have demonstrated unquestionable musical excellence. We shall consider factors such as an artist’s musical influence on other artists, length and depth of career and the body of work, innovation and superiority in style and technique, but musical excellence shall be the essential qualification for induction.

The often quoted criteria of "innovation and influence" may not be as important to the Nominating Committee as "unquestionable musical excellence" is, even though it's a much more subjective criteria.

Like it or not, the evaluation of these factors is highly subjective and can only be answered by the votes of our nominators and voters. In addition, even if an artist meets the influence/impact/innovation test, it doesn’t mean that they get inducted automatically. They still need to get the support of both Committees.

The hard part is getting nominated. The vast majority of artists who have been nominated eventually get inducted.

The entire nomination and induction process is coordinated by the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Foundation in New York City. Artists can be inducted in four categories: Performer, Early Influence, Non-Performer and Side-Men. The latter three are evaluated and decided by separate committees for each category.

[[ Leave those of us in Cleveland who run the Hall of Fame and Museum alone! It's those jerks in New York keeping your favorite band out, not us! ]]

Unlike the other three categories, the selection of Performers is a two-step process.

It begins with a Nominating Committee consisting of a diverse panel of living inductees, journalists, historians, noted musicians, industry heads, etc. In turn, those nominated are sent to a Voting Committee of about 600 people (all living inductees, journalists, historians, music industry management, musicians, etc.) around the world who vote. That said, candidates are reviewed and discussed relative to their impact, innovation and influence on this music that we broadly define as rock and roll. Gold records, number one hits, and million sellers are not appropriate standards for evaluation. Those receiving the highest number of votes and more than 50% of the votes cast are inducted into the Hall. Usually, this means five to seven new performing members each year.

This last paragraph seems out of date. The Rock Hall now predetermines how many inductees there will be each year, and therefore artists don't necessarily need more than 50% of the vote to get in.

Having said all this, I believe that all worthy candidates will be inducted, just not always when they or their fans deem timely. This phenomenon is not unique to us. The sports halls of fame have had many great stars that do not get inducted in their early years of eligibility or for many years to come.

Peace & Soul,

Rock & Roll!

Terry Stewart

President

Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum

Comment on this story over on the Induction Criteria page.

The latest issue of Rolling Stone has a wrap up article about the 2010 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony. There are some interesting quotes from some of the attendees regarding the future of the Rock Hall (the article is not currently posted online).

Pearl Jam bought a table at the ceremony so they could watch The Stooges finally get inducted after being nominated eight times. Some quotes from Eddie Vedder:

"The Stooges are exactly what the Hall of Fame needs more of... [They are] the true embodiment of rock & roll... One can only hope that the voting committee starts boning up on their Black Flag, X, Sonic Youth and Fugazi to keep it going in the right direction... Iggy's speech was right on. Appreciative, but delivered with the back of his hand. If it hadn't taken so many years, Ron Asheton would've been there."

Vedder has his eye towards the future of the Rock Hall, hoping the bands that influenced him will get inducted before he does (Pearl Jam is first eligible for the 2017 induction ceremony). Vedder also calls out the Rock Hall's 500+ member voting committee which consists of people in the music industry, including the past inductees. And this is where the generational rub comes to a head. In this same Rolling Stone article, it casually mentions that the members of Genesis "had barely heard Phish's music" when they were told Phish would be inducting them at the ceremony. These same members of Genesis are now Rock Hall voters. This isn't to suggest that the members of Genesis aren't qualified to vote for the Rock Hall, it's just that they apparently don't connect with a later generation of artists, even one as huge as Phish. And unlike the Nominating Committee, which at least attempts to get younger by occasionally adding new members, the Voting Committee will always be dominated with aging rock stars who likely prefer their peers and influences rather than their followers.

One last nugget from this article that we didn't catch in the ceremony: It mentions that Paul Shaffer, the musical director for the Rock Hall ceremonies, was "honored for his 25 years of Hall of Fame service." Well deserved.

With the 2010 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony just around the corner, it's time to predict who the presenters might be. Here are our picks:

• The Stooges :: Patti Smith
• Genesis :: Chris Martin
• ABBA :: Elvis Costello
• Jimmy Cliff :: Mick Jones
• The Hollies :: Steven Van Zandt

What do you think? Leave your predictions in the comments.

Roger Friedman reports for the Hollywood Reporter that Jann Wenner is considering changing the eligibility rules for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame by reducing the eligibility period by five years. Currently artists are eligible for the Hall of Fame 25 years after releasing their first record, but under the new proposal, it would be reduced to 20. Friedman reports that Wenner is motivated by the weak group of artists becoming eligible over the next few years.

The new idea is to change the charter so that it only takes 20 years to get in. That would move up a lot of acts on the ballot that are more current and carry some name value, which would be good for TV rights. Believe it or not, the following would then be eligible for the 2011 ceremony: Guns N’ Roses, Green Day, Public Enemy, Nirvana, Kid Rock and Smashing Pumpkins. Also a possibility right away: Keith Richards as a solo artist.

If the Rock Hall chooses to change the rules next year, it could potentially create the best ballot the voters have seen in many years. It would also make it much more challenging for often-nominated-but-never-inducted artists such as Chic and Joe Tex to get in.

Friedman correctly reported months ago that David Geffen would be inducted this year as a Non-Performer, so clearly Friedman has sources close to the Rock Hall's power players. In this report, Friedman's sources say that Wenner is only "considering" this rule change, so it's certainly not a done deal. It seems to us that the decision may not be finalized until this summer just before the Nominating Committee meets to determine the 2011 ballot. Stay tuned. In the meantime, we'll be preparing to update our database of eligibility dates...